Effect of lockdown on indian economy

Looking at the rising rate of corona virus cases in India  Prime Minister, Modi announced complete countrywide lockdown for twenty one days.

       The virus eventually started from Wuhan, China and was firstly heard on 31st December 2019. It started spreading at a great pace from January. The virus effected world wide and many major countries. This virus Covid-19 was considered pandemic by WHO in March after covering around 117 countries world wide then. 

        India was also one of those countries hit by the virus after holi. With the fresh cases on rise, the nation started witnessing the second-round effects of the virus spread, turning a complete halt to the economic activities.

          Different measures were taken to tackle the situation so as to control the pace of spread of the virus. After successful 'Janta Curfew'. P.M. Modi announced a countrywide lockdown for 21 days so as to minimize the effect of the virus.
            By this lockdown the major sectors like automobile and pharmaceuticals are drastically impacted due to shortage of imported components.

             A bunch of major big companies from automobiles to ancillaries have announced temporary shutdowns. The firms such as Hindustan Unilever, ITC and Dabur India has also shut down there manufacturing facilities except for plants producing essential goods.

               The effect of the virus in third round now is more likely to effect the country materialistically and economic activities rather than lives i.e facing a hit on bottom lines.



             Apart from the loss in coporate sectors there is greater loss to the lower and marginalised sectors. The labours aand factory workers are now jobless and merely have anything to eat. Even the lower sectors will have to face cash flow shortages and workers will have to face pay cuts. 
            This situation in turn can create a vicious cycle of lower corporate capital expenditure and weaker consumer demand.
         "Our F2021 BSE Sensex EPS growth estimate is now 10 per cent down 20 per cent from mid-February" - said in a note on 23rd March.
     Even Barclays said " the cumulative shutdown cost will be around $ 120 billion or 4% of the GDP. 

Now we have to see how far this lockdown works and minimize the effect of the virus and how it turns to be a effect on the Indian economy. On contrary the Economic Welfare Scheme by the government announced on 26th March is a sign of relief for the weaker and marginalised sections of the society.


Krashnan Shukla
BAMC-ii 

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